Inferring extirpation in potential habitat

Inference of extirpation in potential habitat proceeds as with inference for historical habitat, with the additional element to the analysis that our prior probability of extirpation is modified by a distance kernel, which assigns decreasing probability of persistence with increasing distance from historical habitat.

After pooling statistics between cells in historical and potential habitat, the distributions for the resulting regional extirpation priors and likelihoods for our two focal taxa appear as follows, which is a subplot of our paper’s Figure 3: